If you need assistance, please call 480-365-8346

Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying

Monday, March 23, 2020   /   by Juan Grimaldo

Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying

20200323-KCM-Share.jpg

More and more economists are predicting a recession is imminent as the result of the pullback in the economy caused by COVID-19. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research:

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

Bill McBride, the founder of Calculated Riskbelieves we are already in a recession:

“With the sudden economic stop, and with many states shutting down by closing down schools, bars and restaurants…my view is the US economy is now in a recession (started in March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply in Q2. The length of the recession will depend on the course of the pandemic.”

How deep will it go?

No one knows for sure. It depends on how long it takes to beat this virus. Goldman Sachs anticipates we will see a difficult first half of the year, but the economy will recover in the second half (see below):Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying | MyKCMGoldman also projects we’ll have “further strong gains in early 2021.”

This aligns with the projection from Wells Fargo Investment Institute:

“Once the virus infection rate peaks, we expect a recovery to gain momentum into the final quarter of the year and especially into 2021.”

Again, no one knows for sure how long the pandemic will last. The hope is that it will resolve sometime over the next several months. Most agree that when it does, the economy will regain its strength quickly.

*QUARTER 1 DATA FROM GOLDMAN SACHS WAS UPDATED FROM 0% TO -0.2% ON 3/17/20 AFTER THE INITIAL RELEASE.
Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners - The Grimaldo Group
Juan Grimaldo
7025 West Bell Road #10
Glendale, AZ 85308
480-365-8346

© 2020 Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, All rights reserved. The data relating to real estate for sale on this website comes in part from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than Juan Grimaldo - Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners - The Grimaldo Group (WINBACK) are marked with the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service logo and detailed information about them includes the name of the listing brokers. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be independently verified. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) nor Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. September 25, 2020
This site powered by CINC: www.cincpro.com